Calling the 2024 elections after 4 phases

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“This is the first election of 21st century… slowly, in 20-25 years – maybe not in the next 5-10 years – roadshows, yatras, public meetings and other traditional forms of campaigning will all be done on the electronic media. How you present yourself on television, how you look, how you dress, how you talk will be the main thing.” Pramod Mahajan had explained right before the 2004 elections. BJP reportedly spent a whopping 65 Crore rupees for its media blitzkrieg in the 2004 campaign.

It turned out to be one of the biggest failed campaigns in the history of electoral politics. Mahajan’s entire assumption of “electronic media” replacing all traditional forms of campaigning was so deeply flawed that it has been virtually ridiculed by history. At that

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27 4

Comments

Jump to comment-11

2019 analysis was actually on target and there was only one possible result. In 2024 there are three possibilities which is very confusing. When are likely to get the analysis similar to 2019. Will it be after completing voting in all the phases. Can we assume first scenario to be closer to reality?

Jump to comment-12

284 sure seats 31 toss up with BJP edge 30 real toss up - unpredictable

Jump to comment-13

Dear Mr Patil, I really like your commentary and have been a subscriber every time. I am hearing news this time from friends who travel that there will be dents in Rajasthan, Haryana, and Karnataka (that you have already predicted). Also, what is the impact of the Revanna case? I saw a speech of Tejaswi where he replayed the old promises of Narendra Modi in his own voice and it seemed to be having an effect on the crowd.

Jump to comment-14

Sorry, one more point. TMC leaders scaring voters along with the memory of 2021 post poll brutality - what is the impact of that on voting in WB? Thanks.

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The Final Phase 2 PM looks at the contrast of two military states

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