Modi 3.0: The Final Numbers for 2024 Elections

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As we have been projecting throughout this election season, NDA is increasing its vote-share in at least 4 states of the core-zone – Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi – while it is losing some votes in 5 states – Karnataka, Haryana, Maharashtra, Bihar and Rajasthan. Yet, our models indicate that in the core zone, BJP+ is net gaining about 1 percentage point from 2019.

Overall, in this zone, NDA should win 281 seats, though it must be stressed here that we haven’t polled Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, so our models are either using third party data or simply extrapolating current data of other parts on to past data to project the overall tally.

In a hyper-wave election, BJP may maximise its seats in

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Comments

Jump to comment-48

Any particular call out on VIP constituency? Major surprises?

Jump to comment-49

Zone by zone Very depth analysis and much possible for the BJP to get around 325-338 seats. above that are all bonus seats

Jump to comment-50

Amazing analysis as usual

Jump to comment-51

punjab and rajasthan seats sir?

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aw

aw

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Modi 3.0: The Final Numbers for 2024 Elections

Our Final Projections for 2024

2 PM Report, Final Phase: Focus on Himachal and Punjab

The Final Phase 2 PM looks at the contrast of two military states

Interactions of the civilizational state of India with democracy: A phase 6

India is a civilizational state and her interactions with democracy cannot be dictated by the west

2 PM report on Phase 6: Focus on Delhi and Haryana

Is there any sympathy for Kejriwal? How is the relative strength of Modi wave

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2 PM report on Phase 6: Focus on Delhi and Haryana

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